SpaceX stock drops to a new low and loses $1 trillion in value in a month

[u/MarvelsGrantMan136]

https://www.businessinsider.com/spacex-stock-drops-new-low-ipo-price-starship-launch-scrubbed-2026-7

[u/TheWhyOfFry]

Still overpriced, especially with Twitter stink all over it.

[u/Additional-Signal327 → u/TheWhyOfFry]

Would be hilarious if the SpaceX listing is Elon’s undoing - he flew too close to the sun. SpaceX was a slam dunk IPO if it wasn’t loaded with garbage, Elon’s baggage, and a stupidly high (totally illogical) market cap. 

[u/MightB2rue → u/Additional-Signal327]

This 100%. I could have easily seen a $500 billion ipo but 1.75 trillion? Are you insane?

[u/GrumpyCloud93 → u/MightB2rue]

The problem is, typically the brokers and banks do due dilligence, run the math, and come up with a valuation. Apparently this time, they were so eager to get in on the deal, they let Elon and his ilk set the valuation without questioning it. (And skipped the 1 year wait to include in the Nasdaq). It was sold on the hype around AI and how it will be the second coming. It won't.

xAI was combined with SpaceX so the cash flow from the rockets would pay the bills for xAI - none of the AI enterprises are close to making the money needed to pay back construction costs, and won't get there before the bubble bursts and it's 2008 all over again. They've even floated merging SpaceX and Tesla to add that cash flow to the mix.

[u/herewego199209 → u/GrumpyCloud93]

People saw the Tesla grift and saw how that stock skyrocketed despite none of the math making sense and thought they could be millionaires with this IPO.

[u/BaronVonBearenstein → u/herewego199209]

I genuinely think that this was a big part of it. If SpaceX crashes people might start waking up to the overvaluation of Tesla. They're down to three models customers can buy, one of them being the Cybertruck (and it's a flop). They've been pretty silent on the launch of Optimus v3 and their roadster is still nowhere to be seen. Their autonomous cars are struggling. The only bright spot is their energy storage business.

When you really look at the company, they haven't launched a successful product since the Model Y, and that was back in 2019.

[u/DrXaos → u/BaronVonBearenstein]

My theory: Musk fried his brain in 2020 with drugs and long covid.

He is distinctly worse after that time, almost step function.

[u/Senior-Albatross → u/DrXaos]

The cave diver shit was earlier. But boy oh boy did COVID send a lot of people into the deep end. 

[u/bozog → u/Senior-Albatross]

The 2018 cave diver rescue lawsuit was when I realized that he was a total chaotic narcissistic hypocrite liar, and not the Tony Stark Wanna-Be we had all been sold up to that point.

[u/mars_titties → u/bozog]

Me too, it was a turning point. That and the Tesla Tunnels video where he talked about solving traffic by “going 3D” with infinite underground tubes and elevators bringing your car up to street level. It was beyond delusional.

[u/buyongmafanle → u/Senior-Albatross]

All he had to do was fade into history as the new-age hyper genius back in 2019 as Tesla began skyrocketing. Just let the engineers at Tesla keep making successful products while he rakes in the cash. He couldn't deal with ONLY that image and he started to drink his own Kool-aid.

[u/newsflashjackass → u/DrXaos]

My theory: Musk fried his brain in 2020 with drugs and long covid.

• He has never been able to code his way downhill out of a broke condom.

• At Tesla there was a team of smart people devoted to huddling around him and translating any mush out of his mouth into something that sounded intelligent.

• He fired them in October 2020.

October 2020 was just before COVID cases began to ramp up, which would align with your impression of Musk as COVID-cooked.

So, while it could go either way, I am inclined to think he never had much of a brain in the first place and was only ever a nepo baby who fell out of a lucky vagina at the right time.

[u/silver_garou → u/newsflashjackass]

Musk never had a brain. Nepo baby who went to school with some people who actually made PayPal and gave their friend a pity job. From there he went on a PR campaign where he just told people that he could bring them a sci-fi future, and, for no reason at all, they believed him.

[u/DotesMagee → u/newsflashjackass]

From what I lve read about him, hes just a nepo baby. SpaceX had nothing to do with his brain. Neither did Tesla. If anything, hes done irreperable harm to both of them with his "brain". The only claim he has is that he was CEO.

[u/GoldReplacement9546 → u/BaronVonBearenstein]

Well, and a big difference was like Tessa IPO when they were a relatively small company. SpaceX is already gigantic and is burning cash. It ridiculous amounts and is too diverse.

Like making a good electric car was still a question when they did their IPO like if that could be a thing that works but like it’s nowhere compared to we’re gonna make most of our revenue off of 1 million AI space status Centers like those things are not similar in difficulty or reality or even having a use case

[u/Paddy_Tanninger → u/herewego199209]

And they could have been if they sold to the bag holders.

[u/Beautiful_Welcome_33 → u/Paddy_Tanninger]

Yeah, the IPO worked

[u/Lisan_Al-NaCL → u/GrumpyCloud93]

The problem is, typically the brokers and banks do due dilligence, run the math, and come up with a valuation.

Patrick Boyle does a really good breakdown of the SpaceX IPO value proposition (hint: there is none).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IHD8BDFYyGI

[u/MichaelFusion44 → u/Lisan_Al-NaCL]

That was a great breakdown and his dead pan delivery is just awesome.

[u/Affectionate_One_700 → u/Lisan_Al-NaCL]

Another fan here!

Patrick is one of the most entertaining (in a smart and educated way) economic analysts on YouTube and really deserves a much higher viewership.

[u/Secret_Bourbon → u/Lisan_Al-NaCL]

And for anyone else who liked that video, the whole channel is a great resource for current events analysis in the global, modern economy.

[u/Flexhead → u/GrumpyCloud93]

SpaceX only makes money because of Starlink. The Profit of Starlink is almost 1:1 with SpaceX's costs. Joke of an IPO.

[u/scalyblue → u/GrumpyCloud93]

I’m not sure there’s any actual cash flow from the rockets outside of government contracts that would barely be profitable even if every other ship didn’t blow up

[u/Far-Scallion7689 → u/MightB2rue]

$500 is $350 billion too much

[u/SandIntelligent247 → u/Far-Scallion7689]

$350 billion is one Elon Musk too much

[u/RicTicTocs → u/SandIntelligent247]

One Elon is Musk too much

[u/RollTide16-18 → u/Additional-Signal327]

It's a satellite internet company that does rockets on the side and now has a terrible social media platform and AI service that lose millions a day.

If it were just the first two parts I could see a pretty decent valuation but nowhere close to what he hoped for.

[u/PhatBats77 → u/RollTide16-18]

AI craze is dying faster than he predicted. Something like 95% of projected revenue forecasted over 30 years is from AI.

[u/SourceDammit → u/RollTide16-18]

I would have invested heavily in JUST starlink or SpaceX not the rest of the garbage

[u/pickle_pickled → u/SourceDammit]

Yeah I really like the starlink/SpaceX stack at a real valuation but yeah the rest is just trash and it's not another man's treasure

[u/WonderSignificant598 → u/RollTide16-18]

If your product is two pieces of shit inside a chocolate coating, you can only get away with selling so many of those before word gets around lol.

[u/jinjuwaka → u/Additional-Signal327]

SpaceX was a grift from the get-go.

What we should have done is poured all the money we've been giving spaceX into NASA.

[u/p00p00kach00 → u/jinjuwaka]

I'm a big astronomy guy. NASA sucks at building rockets cheaply. SpaceX (at least its rocket business) is good (even though it's struggling with Starship). Elon is bad.

Edit: For reference, I have a PhD in astronomy and briefly worked in Congress overseeing NASA as part of my portfolio. Its SLS program is a bloated jobs program for politically relevant states.

[u/madwolfa → u/jinjuwaka]

SpaceX was a grift from the get-go.

No it wasn't, but it would be better off without Elon at this point.

[u/Apprehensive-Art1092 → u/TheWhyOfFry]

Ahhh it's not for you. It's more of a... Shelbyville idea

[u/Churro-Juggernaut → u/Apprehensive-Art1092]

Now wait just a minute. We're twice as smart as the people of Shelbyville. Just tell us your idea and we'll vote for it.

[u/Impossible-Value5126 → u/Churro-Juggernaut]

He's "sold monorails to Brockway, Ogdenville, and North Haverbrook, and by gum it put them on the map!"

[u/diopsideINcalcite → u/Apprehensive-Art1092]

Like a mule with a spinning wheel

[u/stealingfirst → u/diopsideINcalcite]

No one knows how he got it, and dammed if he knows how to use it

[u/Kel-Mitchell → u/stealingfirst]

Heh heh. Mule.

[u/NotAllOwled → u/diopsideINcalcite]

What about us brain-dead slobs?

[u/stealingfirst → u/NotAllOwled]

You'll be given cushy jobs

[u/GoTron88 → u/stealingfirst]

Is there a chance the track could bend?

[u/muted_fern → u/GoTron88]

Not on your life my Hindu friend!

[u/juiceyb → u/GoTron88]

Not in your lifetime my Hindu friend.

[u/Kitchen-Witching → u/juiceyb]

The ring came off my pudding can

[u/GoastCrab → u/Kitchen-Witching]

Take my pen knife, my good man!

[u/PluckinCanuck → u/GoastCrab]

But Main Street’s still all cracked and broken!

[u/miguelito_loveless → u/juiceyb]

Ahem. "Not on your life, my Hindu friend!"

[u/hobesmart → u/diopsideINcalcite]

heh... mule

[u/DonkeyOfWallStreet → u/Apprehensive-Art1092]

👏👏

Absolute 📽️🎬

[u/Historical-Mix8865 → u/Apprehensive-Art1092]

Is there a chance the stock price could bend?

[u/showyerbewbs → u/Historical-Mix8865]

Gimme your 401k my friend

[u/Historical-Mix8865 → u/showyerbewbs]

If I was actually Hindu I would be gutted right now

[u/Alimbiquated → u/TheWhyOfFry]

But X is a payments platform that is going to handle more than half the world's payments in a few years. Musk promised. That sounds pretty awesome to me.

[u/Prici260352 → u/Alimbiquated]

Ofcourse. An in 2024 it will land a man on Mars. Also will make data centers in space. That is awesome.

[u/Boomshank → u/Prici260352]

Mush has literally been promising fully autonomous driving cars within six months, EVERY six months, for the last 20 years 

[u/NoMoOmentumMan → u/Boomshank]

And taking deposits on the Roadster for a decade without a single delivery.

[u/DaveWells1963 → u/NoMoOmentumMan]

He renamed it. It’s the Fraudster now.

[u/ours → u/NoMoOmentumMan]

Don't forget the trucks, the actual trucks not the 10-year old designed one.

[u/Helenium_autumnale → u/NoMoOmentumMan]

There was an early car guy in our town who did this, more or less, with extravagant claims about his revolutionary car, and although he is lionized by the boomer "historian" contingent, if you read between the lines, it was a stock pump and dump. The guy was ruined as a result, as anyone should be if they take deposits for a decade and deliver nothing.

[u/adhq → u/Boomshank]

Wait til you hear what Trump promises every 2 weeks

[u/here_is_no_end → u/adhq]

His healthcare plan that’s way better than Obamacare (that he said, back in 2015, that he will reveal right after he’s elected).

[u/biodude481 → u/adhq]

Shit, what doesn't Trump promise is coming in 2 weeks?

[u/freebytes → u/Boomshank]

Any other CEO lying to investors would be in prison by now.

[u/jinjuwaka → u/freebytes]

He's not a CEO anymore. He's a cult leader who just happens to operate on the stock market.

[u/fatpat → u/freebytes]

Nah, CEOs don't go to prison anymore.

[u/mikeymikeymikey1968 → u/Boomshank]

And millions keep licking his boots. What's a megalomanic trillionaire supposed to do?

[u/Equivalent_Action748 → u/Prici260352]

Data centers in space, rather than, say floating on the ocean is such a dumb idea

What happens when there's a hardware issue? Send someone up there to turn it off and on again

I mean, I hope he tries. I hope he sinks a ton of money into it, and then some space dust causes damage or somethkng

[u/SovelissGulthmere → u/Equivalent_Action748]

The US tax payers would just be on the hook for bailing him out.

[u/Guideon72 → u/SovelissGulthmere]

Given that they forced SpaceX into everyone’s investment portfolios, we already are

[u/UnableSeaa → u/Equivalent_Action748]

When there's a hardware issue? The second that shit hits orbit the cosmic radiation will cause so much bit flipping it will be amazing if it stores any data

[u/antonio16309 → u/UnableSeaa]

There are so many reasons why this won't work that you can just pick one randomly and still be right. I'm going to go with cooling. 

[u/mooscimol → u/antonio16309]

This. Data centre in space is dumb idea AF.

[u/therealchadius → u/antonio16309]

"But Space is cold" - suckers investors who think SpaceX is going to do anything besides eat money

[u/KingCroesus → u/Prici260352]

The vacuum of space! The perfect enviroment for heat conduction

[u/BasvanS → u/KingCroesus]

I use a vacuum to cool my coffee on my commute!

[u/Dudeman9002 → u/KingCroesus]

Should we spend an extra $10k for more solar panels on earth to power this server rack or spend $500k to send it into orbit? Whichever sounds cooler is the way to go I guess. 

[u/EndeLarsson → u/Prici260352]

Mars is for loosers. Venus!!

[u/what-isthis-even → u/EndeLarsson]

Omg can we start landing billionaires on Venus please please please please please ????

[u/Rok-SFG → u/what-isthis-even]

You know, i'm fine if they all just go down and visit the titanic in a cardboard tube, like that other guy.

[u/Helenium_autumnale → u/Rok-SFG]

American Scandal did a great podcast series on that man. It's hard to comprehend the arrogance that completely dismisses the dangers of DIY submarines.

[u/EnvironmentalRun1671 → u/EndeLarsson]

Venus is too close. Gimme Pluto!

[u/cutearmy → u/Prici260352]

And take Elon with you! No takesies backsies!

[u/Technical-Row8333 → u/Prici260352]

also, taxi teslas fully self driven by 2016

don't look at waymo.

[u/garry4321 → u/Prici260352]

Don’t forget the hyperloop from LA to NY! I’m super glad the US cancelled a bunch of high speed train ideas in favour of it. If it didn’t get built, people would have claimed that it was all a stupid unscientific ruse to ensure cars like Tesla were still required….

[u/Earthwarm_Revolt → u/Prici260352]

And the boring company will cheaply bore underground tunnels for high speed locomotives easily and everywhere!

[u/dirtyshits → u/Alimbiquated]

Snake oil salesman sells snake oil.

10% of what he says is truth the rest is purely to pump his net worth and his companies valuation.

He may truthfully believe everything he says but most of it is so far fetched and hopeful that you can only laugh at the folks who believe it.

[u/big-papito → u/Alimbiquated]

Musk makes outlandish claims and then the engineers have to will his ideas into existence - it's not like he asks them what and when is possible. This is generally the style of American "management" - "the minions need health insurance and they have mortgage payments, they will bend over to do what I want."

The problem with that approach is that at some point you promise to fly to the moon in a paper airplane, and then it all falls apart.

[u/Beavers4beer → u/Alimbiquated]

I'm still waiting for him to promise teleportation by 2035.

[u/aotus_trivirgatus → u/Beavers4beer]

He can promise to teleport your money into his wallet, will that do?

[u/helcat → u/Alimbiquated]

Also dating. You forgot dating. 

[u/Helenium_autumnale → u/helcat]

Rocket Boy is known as a paragon of long and healthy relationships. If anyone should be in charge of dating, it's him.

[u/boot2skull → u/TheWhyOfFry]

Investors should hopefully understand the piggy bank nature of musk enterprises specifically. Not that others don’t do it, and should be avoided accordingly, but nobody is as high profile about it.

[u/jaredgoff1022 → u/TheWhyOfFry]

Twitter is peanuts compared to the cash burn that is xAi, an Ai company so good they had to spend a record $60B to acquire a start up company, Cursor, an Ai company…

[u/Jesus_Is_My_Gardener → u/TheWhyOfFry]

xAI even more so. That thing is a loss leader in the group. It's burning through cash.

[u/TheWhyOfFry → u/Jesus_Is_My_Gardener]

I personally group that into the Twitter stink. Same with grok. Yes it was post-Twitter acquisition musk stuff, but not core SpaceX. Just a way to unload bags that nobody else would want.

[u/herewego199209 → u/TheWhyOfFry]

It's amazing that his ego led him to buy twitter at an outrageous evaluation then due to the crippling interest he took out to buy it he had to use his AI company to buy out the banks and other people he owed billions to. Twitter would probably bet up for sale now for pennies on the dollar

[u/Mad_OW → u/Jesus_Is_My_Gardener]

xAI is the entire reason for the high valuation.. it was by far the biggest total addressable market with massive projected profits.

It doesn't make sense, but that's the "logic"

[u/Jesus_Is_My_Gardener → u/Mad_OW]

Lol, even the biggest player in the AI space is still a huge negative cash flow, with no clear path towards profitability.

[u/Neuchacho → u/Jesus_Is_My_Gardener]

You're telling me you don't believe that AI data centers in space will solve the cost problem?!

I mean, why build a 100 million dollar data center on the ground when you can send a much smaller one to space for 10x the price!?

[u/crazy_balls → u/Jesus_Is_My_Gardener]

Nah man, you just don't get it. Companies are going to use AI to replace all their workers. AI will make trillions because of this. What's that? Who will buy anything if no one has a job? That's next quarters problem.

[u/Jesus_Is_My_Gardener → u/crazy_balls]

Not to mention these companies who have been replacing their staff with AI are quickly finding the cost being untenable long term as AI companies begin to start raising the cost of using their services. They're still priced nowhere near the actual point that they can break even, let alone generate the profit their valuations are being speculated to bring. The entire industry is subsidized by massive amounts of investor funds, but that isn't an infinite tap.

[u/The_High_Life → u/TheWhyOfFry]

Dont forget the 131 million wasted in significantly deprecating assets offloaded by Tesla

[u/turb0_encapsulator]

it's still worth 10x what it should be worth. same with Tesla. I honestly don't understand the hold this man has over markets.

[u/entered_bubble_50 → u/turb0_encapsulator]

It's hard to place any value on those shares at all.

Forget about conventional fundamentals. Elon owns 70% of the voting shares. If SpaceX ever makes a profit, he will give it all to himself as salary and bonuses. He has no incentive whatsoever to issue a dividend to shareholders. That's exactly how he operates Tesla.

Shareholders will never see a single cent. So are the shares truly worth anything at all?

Edit: A lot of people are responding with the same thing, so I will respond to them here:

But lots of companies don't pay dividends? If the share goes up in value, I'm making money. Why do I care if it comes from the share valuation increasing or dividends?

One question: where are your gains coming from? It's not the company - it's other investors. If your only profits are from other investors, then it's a pyramid scheme, not an investment.

Of course, dividends aren't the only mechanism for sharing profits - there are also share buy backs. But the same lack of incentive applies for that too. Also, I don't believe Tesla has ever had a buy back programme. Elon does not believe in sharing profits with investors period.

[u/turb0_encapsulator → u/entered_bubble_50]

this is an excellent point that I have never thought about.

[u/WarOnFlesh → u/turb0_encapsulator]

no one expects to make money off the company. they expect to make money off the next greater fool. they don't care about the company. they are just investing in the idea that hype will push it higher and someone else will buy it for more later.

it's basically beanie babies.

no one bought beanie babies because they thought they were profitable as an underlying asset. it was hype. same thing here

[u/IAmDotorg → u/entered_bubble_50]

It's a ponzi scheme -- they have a value on the belief that someone else will decide they have a higher value... on the belief that someone after that will decide they have an even higher value.

It's mostly people with a lot of liquidity taking advantage of the swings and profiting on the losses from less liquid/less experienced investors.

[u/Beard_o_Bees → u/IAmDotorg]

I still maintain that replacing the traditional retirement pension with what basically amounts to placing your retirement savings into a casino, was one of the biggest cons ever perpetrated in America.

[u/versusChou → u/IAmDotorg]

That's not really what a Ponzi Scheme is. Musk isn't accepting investments and paying out to earlier investors with that money. It's more like the Greater Fool Theory or a Speculative Bubble. People are buying it, not because they believe it will ever pay back, but because they expect someone else in the future is willing to pay more for it. Musk's wealth is simply growing because he's got a ton of the stock that people are speculating on. If it ever all collapsed to what it really probably should be worth, he would lose a ton. Of course he's certainly diversified a bit and got a good amount of liquid capital, so he'll never become destitute.

[u/KaleScared4667 → u/IAmDotorg]

You just described he entire modern day stock market

[u/turb0_encapsulator → u/KaleScared4667]

It's not really the same. Other trillion dollar companies trade at ~30x earnings, whereas Tesla trades at 350x earnings, and it isn't even a growing company at this point. SpaceX trades at over 50x *revenue* and isn't profitable and never has been.

[u/Synaps4 → u/KaleScared4667]

Other companies have sold more than 50% of voting shares so that it's theoretically possible to take over the company and buy its profits if shares get low enough.

For companies like spacex where you can never buy enough for meaningful voting, you are entirely at the whim of whoever owns those shares. If they run the company to zero there's nothing you can do, no matter how cheap it gets, to get any of its profit. It's more like donating money than investing.

[u/yanginatep → u/entered_bubble_50]

Investors nowadays don't seem to care about dividends. All they care about is infinite growth line goes up.

Being profitable isn't enough. Companies have to be forever growing.

[u/_Zambayoshi_ → u/turb0_encapsulator]

He's a Pied Piper. He plays his merry tune and the rats follow him. Do the rats know where they're going? Probably not. But the music is so enticing.

[u/Riversntallbuildings → u/_Zambayoshi_]

Don’t you mean “Hooli CEO” ? At least Pied Piper had a product ;)

-HBO Silicon Valley reference

[u/UNC_Samurai → u/Riversntallbuildings]

Elon went from Peter to Gavin to Russ in the span of a decade.

[u/Helenium_autumnale → u/turb0_encapsulator]

He's selling dreams in an increasingly broken world. And there's always a market for that. Go to Mars! Make millions with supercool Rocket Stocks! Your car drives itself and it's 200% safe!

The reality is something different. (Tesla is #1 for fatal road accidents)

[u/WitchesSphincter → u/Helenium_autumnale]

"A normal car gets into an accident here, you'll be severely injured or dead. Meanwhile the new* Tesla full self drive* would not only avoid it, but cure your old football injury for your trouble. "

[u/CynGuy → u/WitchesSphincter]

You only need to be careful NOT drive into a solid white wall….. oh, yeah …. You’d have FSD on. Bye!

[u/Johannes_Keppler → u/WitchesSphincter]

The link does hint at the type of people driving Teslas being the biggest risk factor, not even the cars themselves. It's just assholes dying at double the average rate.

[u/Spotttty → u/turb0_encapsulator]

The shitty thing is even if Tesla went under and SpaceX imploded he would still live a life better than 99.9% of the people in the world. He is never going broke. He is never going to prison.

[u/steppe5 → u/Spotttty]

Of course not. At this point, he could start a GoFundMe and his cult would donate millions to him.

[u/-Tom- → u/turb0_encapsulator]

Teslas stock is worth more than every other auto manufacturers stock put together. That's insane.

[u/StoppableHulk → u/turb0_encapsulator]

I honestly don't understand the hold this man has over markets.

You're thinking about it the wrong way. The reality is that the markets have a hold over themselves by virtue of not wanting the value to go down.

If enough people remain irrational then the value never goes down. Elon Musk pumps out just enough propaganda so that even though it's ridiculous, it's something that someone who is in willful denial can use to remain in their course of action, which gets them money.

[u/Shoehorse13]

So Elon is the first ex-trillionaire?

[u/colombogangsta → u/Shoehorse13]

Yeah and the biggest loser in the history of mankind.

No one lost as much as Musk in net wealth which is $240B in a single day which was June 22, 2026. For reference, the second richest person’s net wealth is $284B.

Of course those valuations are delusional and not real, but I take it as a way to call him the biggest loser ever!

[u/a4mula]

And now the shorts are starting to stack, which is going to generate its own gravity well that requires a bit more than a slide rule to overcome.

[u/TheMurmuring → u/a4mula]

I love short stacks!

[u/a4mula → u/TheMurmuring]

Silver dollars aren't what they used to be

[u/malac0da13 → u/a4mula]

Don’t worry. The government will probably bail them out.

[u/SecularTech]

Totally predictable over-hyped scam to fleece retail investors. The insiders made thiers.

[u/moistbuddhas → u/SecularTech]

Yep, we havent even got to the day where the employees, who have multiple millions now, can sell. There is only more sales coming when these employees liquidate parts of their shares since they are multi-millionares on paper, and they are going to want to live like ones immediately.

Employees cannot sell right now, but they get multiple early unlocks before the full 180‑day lockup ends.

• From the S‑1:20% unlock after Q2 earnings (Aug 2026)

• +10% performance unlock if SPCX trades 30% above IPO price

• +7% unlocks at days 70, 90, 105, 120, 135

• +28% unlock after Q3 earnings

• Full unlock at 180 days (Dec 2026)

[u/TheMurmuring → u/moistbuddhas]

And every unlock is going to make it drop further and further.

[u/binzersguy → u/TheMurmuring]

Let’s hope so. I want to see it at $10

[u/Weakonomics → u/binzersguy]

I'd buy that for a Nickel!

[u/AMEFOD → u/Weakonomics]

If we are entering a dystopian hell scape, at least quote a “good” movie.

“I’d buy that for a dollar!!”

[u/Tarheels988 → u/moistbuddhas]

Is the lookout period a law? Could an employee negotiate to remove it?

[u/Sirbunbun → u/Tarheels988]

No, it’s part of the stock agreement with the company and the SEC. It would go against rules around insider trading and stock classes.

[u/jpj625 → u/moistbuddhas]

The employees with a significant stake aren't selling.

Anyone with more than about $5M doesn't need to sell to start using the shares as collateral or in exchanges. At this level, the whole game is avoiding taxes.

[u/h28200 → u/jpj625]

Better to pay tax on gains than incur a loss, the way Spcx is trading they'll probably sell whatever they can when allowed.

[u/ChapekElders → u/h28200]

The average cost basis many of these employees had is less than 1/10th the current share price.

[u/etaoin314 → u/SecularTech]

insiders are still locked up for a few more days....I'm waiting for the other shoe to drop..

[u/Vanman04 → u/SecularTech]

One would think so yet Tesla stock still remains completely untethered from reality.

[u/Neither-Signature-81 → u/Vanman04]

Yeah but with Tesla stock a lot of people made a bunch of money and if they don’t sell they just lose a little gain. With spacex its the opposite lol the only people investing are getting hosed

[u/PLeuralNasticity → u/Vanman04]

Because Tesla is the most manipulated stock on the market since it went public

[u/TheWindowMerchant]

When a company loses a trillion dollars in valuation in a month and nobody on the executive team seems even remotely concerned about losing their job, don’t you think that there might be something fishy going on?

[u/Sea_Pomegranate_4499 → u/TheWindowMerchant]

Elon declined any pre-IPO price discovery, he just told the underwriters what the price was going to be and built a prospectus around that number to justify it. No one has to wonder, it is all clear as day what is going on.

[u/Short-Peanut1079 → u/TheWindowMerchant]

"early days" "growth and startup phase" "empire building phase"

[u/oakleez]

Oh, no! Anyway....

[u/trust_me_on_that_one → u/oakleez]

Such a shame 🤷

[u/Crafty_Ish1973]

Good. The more Elon loses, the better.

[u/Aware-Instance-210 → u/Crafty_Ish1973]

Until the losses will be socialized and paid by the taxpayer

[u/CyberIntegration → u/Aware-Instance-210]

That's Capitalism, baby

[u/chaoticneutral262 → u/Aware-Instance-210]

More likely, socialized and paid for by our retirement plans. SpaceX pressured various stock market indexes to change their rules so as to include SPCX, which wouldn't have qualified otherwise. As a result, many of the mutual funds and ETFs in our IRA and 401(k) accounts bought SPCX at or near the high.

It was a clever way for Musk to transfer billions from retail investors to SpaceX's coffers.

[u/Crasz → u/chaoticneutral262]

Isn't that something a lawsuit could solve?

[u/Neither-Signature-81 → u/Crasz]

Nope. SEC is completely gutted and installed peons who don’t care.

[u/trisul-108 → u/Crafty_Ish1973]

He's not loosing anything, the question is simply whether how many billions he manufactured out of thin air ... 1000 billion, 900 billion, 800 billion or less.

[u/Equivalent_Action748 → u/trisul-108]

Well, lowering the amount of fake money he has is still better than increasing the rate in which he generates it

[u/Substantial-Wish6468 → u/Crafty_Ish1973]

Elon's not the loser in this, the bag holders who bought his stock are. It was a bullshit valuation but people still bought it. 

[u/xtheory → u/Crafty_Ish1973]

Except for the fact that his shitty stock has been included into the NASDAQ 100 and Russell 1000 index funds. Thankfully S&P 500 was smart enough to not allow it's inclusion.

[u/morbihann]

According to their own documentation they are mainly an AI company that cant make use of their own datacenters and rent them out.

What does that tell you ?

[u/mtranda]

How does one "lose" something they never had?

[u/Klutzy-Condition811 → u/mtranda]

Oh don't worry they gained from it at the expense of those stupid enough to invest at the peak and retail index fund investors who had no choice.

[u/Kershiser22 → u/mtranda]

Well, presumably there are people who bought SPCX at $210 and are currently holding it at $125. So they have an unrealized loss of $85. But they are still out the $210 cash.

[u/pewpewtopeepee]

Poor space Karen.

[u/CyberSmith31337]

It’s not that $1tn was lost; $1 tn were extracted from retail investors who served as exit liquidity for insiders.

We need to start talking about these things as they are. The money didn’t vanish; it was pulled out and left retail holding the bag.

[u/JUGGER_DEATH → u/CyberSmith31337]

No, the total float was worth $86 billion. That is a ceiling on what wad ”extracted”.

[u/steppe5 → u/JUGGER_DEATH]

Thank you. Not enough people realize that these numbers are make believe. Elon was never a trillionaire and nobody lost a trillion dollars. It's all bullshit.

[u/RS_S64 → u/CyberSmith31337]

The float for SPCX is a very small portion of the overall equity so the $1tn was only paper gains, the actual money lost is much lower. For most investors (that had their shares locked up), they didn't actually have any realized losses - current share value is fairly close to the valuations pre-IPO, so they just had writeups and writedowns to end up in a similar position to pre-IPO.

[u/bombayblue]

Hopefully this is a good lesson for everyone on the differences between realized and unrealized gains.

Couldn’t have happened to a better person lol

[u/slosha69 → u/bombayblue]

The difference means very little when a $1T loss in market cap won't break the bank. The mega yacht is still sailing and the private plane is still flying.

[u/Generic_Commenter-X]

He'll just promise self-driving rocket ships and the stock price will go over 3000.

[u/FenderFan05]

Still needs to lose another trillion at least

[u/Yeti_Urine]

Um does that mean our 401ks are all being robbed by this shit?

[u/Jarocket → u/Yeti_Urine]

Space ex is an AI company and might influence other related AI companies prices, but in reality space ex is a Musk company and the normal rules don’t apply.

As far as being in your 401k. Things like the S&P 500 require being listed for a year and critically for spcx 4 quarters of positive income. Space ex just lights money on fire so it won’t be included.

Nasdaq-100 changed its rules specifically to let it in though.

[u/FrankDrebinOnReddit → u/Yeti_Urine]

For most people, no, since it hasn't been added to the S&P 500 yet.

[u/Heliocentrist]

This is so sad, it can go much lower than that

[u/damiana8]

Still overvalued

[u/Outrageous-Map8302]

Who could have seen this coming

[u/EndeLarsson]

99% less and probably will get to real value.

[u/CocoScruff]

If only anyone could have predicted this.... /s

[u/wildmaninid]

Good.  Time for the curtain to be pulled back on his grift. 

[u/romulof]

People needed a NFT replacement, so Elon gave them one.

[u/approximately_exact]

It is unfathomable how these profitless companies with a pittance for revenue are worth trillions of dollars. I don't know where we went wrong, but wrong we went.

[u/copperblood]

Something something don't invest with Nazis 🤣🤡

[u/NY10]

GOAT in Scamming peoples money lol

[u/audiogenocide]

More of this, please! Fuck you Elon!

[u/SecondhandTrout]

Couldn’t happen to a more worthy company

[u/Comfortable_Horse277]

Can't lose value it never really had.  Fuck criminal Elon. 

[u/ryannelsn]

Does anyone remember when he said he wouldn't take Space X public until he had regular flights to and from Mars?

[u/CompotSexi]

It was all a hoax for a bunch of rich guys to make a lot of money, and for Elon to mark his name as the first "trilionaire".

[u/MiserableResort2688]

any company that can lose 1 trillon of value that fast was never worth it to begin with clearly

[u/Bubbly-Treacle-4334]

Is SpaceX the biggest financial crime in history?

[u/dvoecks]

It's been 3 kids in a trench coat trying to sneak into the stock market as an AI company from its inception.

[u/Old-Push9343]

It's just insane how they have overvalued this company, as if they were going to land in the Moon next week, in Mars next month, and start mining asteroids in a year.

Also, the whole notion of data centers in space seems so absurd to me. I am not saying it will never happen, but it's not something that makes any sense to me for at least like, maybe 50 to 100 years?

[u/N0stradama5]

Thought this was [r/good](r/good)[news](r/good) at first lol

[u/jared__]

yup and everyone's index funds are the bag holders